Copa Sudamericana 2012: Olimpia vs Emelec Preview

Olimpia vs Emelec
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
28/08/2012, 20:45 (01:45 BST)

Olimpia take on Emelec for the fourth time in under a year in the Copa Sudamericana 2nd round 1st leg in Asunción. The Paraguayans progressed when these two sides met at the same stage of last year’s competition although five of the starting XI from the 1st leg in 2011 have now moved on. Although El Decano looked comfortable against Danubio in the last round the Uruguayans were poor and undoubtedly Emelec will provide a stronger challenge. There will of coures, be a sense of revenge in the air as Emelec knocked Olimpia out of the Copa Libertadores group stages earlier in the year.

Emelec got the better of Olimpia their first meeting in 2012 – Photo: AFP

The probable Olimpia line-up is still unknown (see below) with Gregorio Pérez still trying to find the right blend of attacking and defensive players, he began his time with three cleansheets but they have conceded in their four games since including four goals in the last two games. With no foreign-player restrictions in the Copa Sudamericana the Uruguayan Sebastián Ariosa is expected to come in at left-back which offers more of an offensive threat down that side. Also Maxi Biancucchi is installed into the starting line-up probably at the expense of Arnaldo Castorino. The dangerman recently has been Juan Manuel Salguiero who usually plays just behind the strikers in a 4-3-1-2 formation. However, there is talk of him being dropped to allow Olimpia to play in a more traditional 4-4-2 with defensive players Miguel Amado and Alejandro Silva in the middle; Jorge Nuñez and Richard Ortiz would be on the flanks. That would help protect the full backs against Emelec’s electric wingers.

Gregorio Perez  – Photo: D10.com.py

Emelec needed a last minute penalty to get through to this round and in general they have been scraping victories all season, currently second in the Ecuadorean league with a goal difference of just two. They have a strong forward line with ex-Boca Juniors Marcos Mondiani the creative force while compatrit Luciano Figueroa provides power. Enner Valencia is pure pace down the right hand side and in central defence they have Cristian Nasuti who was excellent for Libertad in the first half of the year.

It is likely to be a tight game, but the home advantage should be enough for Olimpia to come out on top.

Olimpia XI (probable 4-3-1-2): Martín Silva; Alejandro Silva, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa; Eduardo Aranda, Miguel Amado, Richart Ortiz; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Maxi Biancucchi, Fredy Bareiro

Olimpia XI (probable 4-4-2): Martín Silva, Richard Salinas, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa; Jorge Nuñez, Miguel Amado,  Alejandro Silva, Richard Ortíz; Maxi Biancucchi, Nestor Bareiro

Prediction: 2-1

Selected Odds: Olimpia win 1.76, Draw 3.65, Emelec win 5.8, 1-0 scoreline 6.8, Over 2.5 goals 2.28

Best Bet: Despite the prediction above they BTTS (Both teams to score) bet at 2.12 might be safer than Over 2.5 goals, it is worth bearing in mind that 3 of the 4 previous meetings have gone over 2.5 in case you do fancy that

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia vs Emelec Head-to-Head

Pld 4 W 2 D 0 L 2 GF 6 GA 6

Olimpia last 5 home (Continental Competitions)

Pld 5 W 3 D 1 L 1 GF 9 GA 7

Olimpia knocked Emelec out of the 2011 Copa Sudamericana at this stage

Emelec beat Olimpia in the final group game of the 2012 Copa Libertadores to take their place in 2nd round

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Full Squad List

GK: Martín Silva, Victor Centurión

DEF:  Alfredo Rojas, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa, Eugenio Montiel, Alejandro Silva, Richard Salinas

MID: Eduardo Aranda, Jorge Nuñez, Osvaldo Hobecker, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz, Miguel Amado, Jorge Báez

ATT: Arnaldo Castorino, Nestor Bareiro, Julio Santacruz, Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro, Maxi Biancucchi

By Ralph Hannah

Paraguay Clausura week five

A Friday double-header followed by a Saturday hattrick and rounded off with a solitary Sunday show, that’s week five in a nutshell. Here are the previews taking into account that Olimpia, Cerro Porteño and Guaraní all have midweek Copa Sudamericana matches.

Cerro Porteño vs Rubio Ñu (TV)
La Olla
24/08/2012, 18:15
Prediction: 2-0

Rubio Ñu take on an azulgrana team for 2nd week running – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro’s winless run in the league continued last weekend when they failed to get past Carapeguá away. Rubio Ñu at home is an even easier fixture and they really should break their duck on Friday night. It is a similar team to last week but Roberto Nanni who scored in the previous two games is set to be replaced by Santiago Salcedo. Fidencio Oviedo also comes back into the side following suspension. Fossati has learned from his experience (vs Sol) that resting players for the Copa Sudamericana only to lose at home is bad for the relationship with the fans so they’ll be going out with their minds fully focussed on this game. Rubio Ñu are also without a win in the Clausura and have struggled for goals (2 in 4 games) so far. The previous two meetings between these teams have been exciting ones, Cerro coming on top both times, 5-3 and 3-2

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Mariano Uglessich, Pedro Benítez, Cesar Benítez; Carlos Bonet, Fidencio Oviedo, Julio Dos Santos, Walter López; Jonathan Fabbro; Rodrigo López, Santiago Salcedo

SELECTED ODDS: Cerro win 1.61; Draw 3.5, Rubio Ñu 5.3

BEST BET: With both teams showing inconsistency betting on goals rather than the result could be a better option, Cerro usually score late-on so maybe it is worth looking at Over 1.5 goals in-play if they have a goalless first 30 mins

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Libertad vs Sol de América
Tuyucuá
24/08/2012, 19:00

Prediction: 1-0

Libertad had an exciting end-to-end game against Olimpia last Saturday but this week’s game should be a return to type under Ruben Israel, keep things tight and obtain a professional victory. José Ariel Nuñez has been one of the best strikers in the league so far this season and is ably partnered by Pablo Velázquez, there is no doubt that combination can break down the danzarín defence to score.  Like Libertad, Sol de América have drawn three and won one so far this season, twice letting a lead slip against weaker sides (Rubio Ñu & Independiente). The performances of Lorenzo Frutos and Diego Vázquez up front has been admirable but this is the best defence they have come up against so far in the Clausura (they didn’t face Cerro Porteño’s first choice backline) and I’m not sure they’ll be able to breach the Libertad ranks. I’m expecting a close home win to end the run of three draws.

SELECTED ODDS: Libertad win 1.51; Draw 3.9; Sol win 6.2

BEST BET: Boring but safe, a home win

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Jorge Moreira, Ismael Benegas, Gustavo Mencia, Miguel Samudio; Luis Cáceres, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nelson Romero; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez.

Look whole round preview on The Paraguay Football Blog

 

cork city v blackburn

Blackburn sold two strikers and third (Leon Best) is injureed but Cork have tomorow important game ant today will rotate squad. 

by Daniel Victor

p.s. paraguay preview on paraguayfootball.wordpress.com (from mobile)

saturday 4/8

Barcelona v PSG

Probable starting lineups:

Barcelona: Pinto; Alves, Pique, Alba; Busquets, Febregas, Xavi, Inestia; Sanchez, Messi, Pedro

PSG: Douchez; Bisevac, Alex, Sakho, Armand; Chantome, Verratti; Nene, Pastore, Lavezzi; Ibrahimovic

2. Bundesliga » Bochum – Dresden

Bochum improved the squad a great deal during the transfer window… Looking to become a stable team. Fabian, Aydin, Delura, Esser and Toski injured. Acquistapace also out

Dynamo Dresden was a pleasant surprise last season but than all of the key players go during the transfer window. Scholz(gk) and Jungnickel injured, Fiel(r)(mid) has flu..

Sweden » Superettan » Ljungskile – Jonkopings

Jonkopings loose best palyer Hrgota (M’gladbach, att 14/10), other striker Cederqvist (14/4) wasis injured (but probably will play today), third striker Tegström (11/3) is suspended. Suspended are also Joakim Karlsson (mf 16/0), and Fredric Fendrich (mf 17/0). K Svensson (df 13/1), Djup, Snarberg and Justinussen also have problems with injuries. Thalin (17/7) is scoring but he cannot alone. They are weak away (2 points on last 6 games)..Ljungskile also without some players: Silva (df 10/0), Vroom (att 9/0), pavey (13/6) and Cakic (mf 13/0) but i think they can won this

FC Sion vs FC Basel

Priority for basel is Champions league (but they also cannot allow Sion to go far with points on table)

Lythuania, Banga – Atlantas

pick: Atlantas (+1.5) @ 2,1 bet365

It might be strange that I am betting on bottom team, but things changed dramatically in recent weeks. Atlantas have signed 14 different players during last month and team is totally different now. And last round they already recorded a victory against Dainava. It was their first home victory of the season. New signings N.Smith, T.Lagator and J.Rullier were one of the best in the team. Best thing that they are very skillful comparing to domestic players. Banga are an average team with no extraordinary personalities and I think they won’t win today

Paraguay Superclásico: Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño preview

 Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
04/08/2012, 16.00 (21.00 BST)
Prediction: 1-1

A strange feeling about this game that takes place less than a month after the previous clásico (which Cerro Porteño won to take the league title) and it comes at a difficult time for both sides who have a Copa Sudamericana 2nd leg tie to contend with next week. Surprisingly the match won’t be played on neutral ground as Olimpia have opted to play in their stadium in an effort to try and make the home advantage pay.

Castorino is the form player for Olimpia – Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia had a good opening win to the season, they are yet to concede in 180 minutes of competitive football which is a nod to Gregorio Perez the organised Uruguayan coach. He is likely to go for the 4-3-1-2 he used in the first game with three defensive-minded midfielders in Amado, Paredes and Ortiz. Juan Manuel Salgueiro will operate just behind the new-look partnership of in-form Arnaldo Castorino (3 goals in 4 games) and Nestor Bareiro which functioned well in the game against Rubio Ñu. As always with Olimpia their goalkeeper will be an inspirational figure and the defence must perform, a possible weak link is Salustiano Candia who will be out of position if picked at right back.

Previous superclásico from the skies – Photo: abc.com.py

Cerro Porteño are looking to make changes after the defeat to Guaraní and with Luis Cardozo out the Uruguayan Gonzalo Viera could make his debut in central defence. The eleven in the most recent training session (see below) seems very unbalanced with the possibility that Fabbro plays off the lone striker and Dos Santos in his preferred role as enganche. It seems that Jorge Fossati, suspended for this game following his red card against Guaraní, is looking to get as much attacking talent on the field of play. In the previous game it was his desire to take the game to a defensive Olimpia team that won the day, could this be a repeat?

Olimpia XI (probable): M.Silva;  S.Candia, J.C.Cáceres, E.Meza, R.Salinas; M.Amado, C.Paredes, R.Ortiz; A.Castorino, J.M.Salgueiro, N.Bareiro

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): D. Barreto; G.Viera, P.Benítez, C.Benítez; C. Bonet, J.Rojas, F.Oviedo, D.Salcedo; J.Dos Santos; J.Fabbro, R. Lopez

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Selected Odds: Check on Saturday

Best Bet: Always a tough one to call, on paper Cerro have a stronger side but Olimpia have the home advantage – draw?

Club presidents Zapag and Recanate

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STATS AND TRIVIA

Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño last five

The old rivals go head to head – Photo: Ultima Hora Archive

Pld 5 –  Olimpia W 2 – Cerro W 1 – Draws 2

Superclásico head-to-head (League Games)

Pld 273 – Cerro W 97 – Olimpia W 93 – Draws 83

Enrique Cáceres refs only his second clásico, he has been in charge of 21 Olimpia games

No team has won more than five clásico’s in a row, Cerro have achieved the quintuple twice (1986-88 & 2007-08)

By Ralph Hannah (look whole round preview)

Sligo – Drogheda Utd

Sligo without North (att 16/14)

Joinville – Criciuma

Criciuma without goal machine Ze Carlos (12/16) + Lucca (11/4)

Germany » LIGA total! Cup

Hamburger – Dortmund

Bayern Munich – Werder Bremen

2 x 30 minutes

Cerro Porteño vs Guaraní

Estadio Gral. Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
30/07/2012, 19:00
Prediction: 1-0

Cerro were in Chile on Thursday, hence the Monday kick off – Photo: Julio Dos Santos Twitter

Expect a good crowd for the defending champions first official home game of the season where they will show off plenty of new signings, add to that the almost derby status of this fixture. Guaraní started really badly with a home defeat in the Copa Sudamericana and I’ve said it a lot but worth repeating, goalscoring is their problem with no top class striker. In contrast Cerro scored three on Thursday night and if they defend competently this will be a winning start to the Clausura campaign. Both sides miss their main playmaker through injury, Jonathan Fabbro and Sergio Orteman respectively.

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): D.Barreto; L.Cardozo, P.Benítez, C.Benítez; C.Bonet, F.Oviedo, J.Dos Santos, D.Salcedo; A.Da Silva, G.Beltrán, R. López

Guaraní XI (probable): P.Aurrecochea; T.Bartomeus, A.Rodriguez, L.Cabral, E.Marecos; L.De la Cruz, M.Palau, J.Mendoza, B.Cáceres; D.López, C.Hidalgo

BEST BET: Last season Cerro had a habit of scoring late goals, in a tight game the Draw/Cerro bet at 4.4 looks interesting

By Ralph Hannah